10 August 2019

#vanhetgaslos #gasloos #feiten #planning #factsheet

natural gas flame

De feiten op een rij

De gasconsumptie in Nederland is ~ 40 bilj m3 [1]. Gemiddeld per huishouden 1470 m3 per jaar (tabel 1).

Het aantal woningen (tabel 2) in Nederland land is ruim 7,8 miljoen, waarvan 4,4 miljoen koopwoningen en 3,4 miljoen huurwoningen. Hoe die woningen, in het bijzonder de koopwoningen, los van het gas moeten worden gekoppeld, wordt in het klimaatakkoord niet helder.

Een aantal sleutelpunten uit het klimaatakkoord [2] staan in 'Appx A'. In tabel 3 staan de uit sleutelpunten gehaalde planning en acties.

Voor de korte termijn valt op:

  1. Transformatie van 102.500 woningen voor 2021 op een totaal bestand van 7,8 miljoen. Een zeer bescheiden 'ambitie'.

  2. Verhogingen van de gasprijs in 2020 met €0.055 en op een niet nader genoemd moment met €0.20 per m3 Het gelijktijdig verlagen van de electriciteitsprijs is de spreekwoordelijke sigaar uit eigen doos [3].

Voor de middellange termijn valt op dat onderzoekers aangeven [1]:

  1. Demand for gas will increase until 2030, researchers have calculated. And even in 2050 the total Dutch gas consumption will still be about 30 billion m3, whereas at present it is about 40 billion m3.

  2. This will cause a major increase in the demand for electricity.


Tabel 1 :

2018

Gasconsumptie ~ 40 bilj m3 [1]

2019

Gas per huish gemiddeld 1470 m3

2019

Elektriciteit ,, 3000 kWh

2019

Kosten gem. per huish. €2100

2019

Gas gem. per huish. €1150

2019

Elektriciteit gem. per huish. €690

2019

Gas gemiddeld €0.79 per m3

2019

Elektriciteit gemiddeld €0.23 per kWh

2050

Total Dutch gas consumption ~ 30 billion m3

Tabel 2 :

2019

Aantal woningen (feb): 7.824.158

waarde: 1,76 biljoen euro

2018

Koopwoningen: 4.386.769

2018

Huurwoningen (corp): 2.268.383

2018

Huurwoningen (overig): 1.007.582

2018

‘eigendom onbekend’: 78.250

2018

Onbewoond: 342.930

geschatte kosten ombouw woning €25.000: Warmtepomp 6000, Isolatie 12.500

+ zonneboiler, zonnepanelen, 3dub glas (€10.000-20.000) = ~ €45.000

Tabel 2a Nieuwbouw aantal en woningvoorraad
Perioden Nieuwbouw aantal Nieuwbouw Huurwoningen aantal Woningen x 1000 Huurwoningen (corp) x1000

2000

74774

15209

6734

2005

71541

22600

7013

2012

48668

12100

7449

2275

2013

49311

6900

7535

2309

2014

45170

7100

7588

2282

2015

48381

7641

2298

2016

54849

7686

2017

62982

7741

2018

66585

7815

2268

2019

50000

Tabel 3 :

2015

Paris Climate Agreement

2018

Klimaataccoord

2020

verhogen prijs natural gas by 5.5 ct/m3

?

verhogen prijs natural gas met 20 ct/m3

2020

verlagen prijs electricity by 2.7 ct/kWh.

?

energy tax relief of 81 euros

2021

75% nieuwe huizen gasloos

2021

transformed 102,500 existing houses to gasloos

2021

overeenkomst gasloos + tranforming eindigd

2021

Gemeenten moeten een planning voor alle buurten hebben.

2030

kolencentrales sluiten [4]


4. RUG

2030

no more gas will be produced in Groningen

2030

slash natural gas consumption by 25% - Paris

2030

49% reductie broeikas gassen

2030

80% van de huishoudens los van gas / 1,5 miljoen hh

>2030

natural gas network will remain in place

2050

slash natural gas consumption by 74% - Paris

2050

geen woning met aardgas verwarmd

2050

50% rise in demand for electricity [groningen]

Appx A: www.klimaatakkoord.nl

  1. The National Climate Agreement, the Dutch contribution to "Paris", has one central goal, which is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands by at least 49 percent in 2030 compared to 1990.

— Proposal for key points of the Climate Agreement
https://www.klimaatakkoord.nl

A.1. Belasting

  1. TAX SHIFT: increasing the tax on gas and lowering the tax on electricity will make insulation and sustainable heating more appealing. The shift will be structured in such a way that it eases the tax burden on households;

  2. Insulation or heat pumps should lead to greater savings on energy bills, allowing a greater return on these investments. We can realise this by lowering taxes on the utilities we want to make greater use of, i.e. electricity, and increasing taxes on the ones we want to use less, i.e. natural gas.

  3. A first step will be possible in 2020 by increasing the price of natural gas by 5.5 ct/m 3 and lowering that of electricity by 2.7 ct/kWh.

  4. Calculations show that adding 20 ct/m 3 for natural gas and taking off 7.34 ct/kWh for electricity makes insulation and sustainable heating options much more appealing. If this shift is combined with an increase in energy tax relief of 81 euros, a neutral to positive effect on purchasing power is achieved for all income groups.

— Proposal for key points of the Climate Agreement
Belastingen

A.2. Gas

  1. NEW HOUSING WITHOUT NATURAL GAS: parties are working towards achieving 75% of total new housing without natural gas in the period from 1 July 2018 to the end of 2021;

  2. STARTER MOTOR: by 2021, corporations aim to have transformed 102,500 existing houses to not use natural gas anymore.

— Proposal for key points of the Climate Agreement
Gas

A.3. Built environment

  1. We are on the brink of a major renovation. The transformation of our 7 million houses and 1 million buildings, most of which are not very well insulated and almost all of which are heated with natural gas, into well-insulated houses and buildings that we heat with sustainable energy and in which we consume clean electricity or even generate it ourselves.

  2. We want to be able to stop natural gas extraction in Groningen as soon as possible.

— Proposal for key points of the Climate Agreement
Built environment

A.4. District-oriented approach

  1. For many districts, the natural gas network will remain in place until after 2030.

  2. Insulating and burning less gas with a hybrid boiler will then be a sensible temporary solution. However, the technical condition of the houses is not the only factor; the wishes of the residents and challenges in the district other than energy supply are just as important for the results.

— Proposal for key points of the Climate Agreement
District-oriented approach

A.5. A successful start

  1. The legal obligation to connect newly built houses and utility buildings (<40 m 3 /h)) to the natural gas network will be scrapped on 1 July 2018. However, many plans are already in development.

  2. The parties have therefore agreed to ensure that the projects in development will also be delivered without natural gas as much as possible.

  3. The agreements will apply from 1 July 2018 and will run until the end of 2021.

  4. The parties are working towards achieving 75 percent of total new housing without natural gas in the period from 1 July 2018 to the end of 2021.

— Proposal for key points of the Climate Agreement
A successful start